Box Office Doesn't Determine Quality
Yes, The Smashing Machine bombed. It made $6 million against a $50 million budget in the 1st weekend, and a total of $18 million to date globally. That's Dwayne Johnson's lowest opening ever - devastating for a star who's been box office gold for decades.
And yes, bad box office has historically hurt Oscar chances. The Academy likes winners. They like cultural moments. They like films people actually see.
But if we've learned anything from Oscar history, it's that box office and quality aren't always aligned. Some of the greatest performances ever captured on film were in movies nobody saw in theaters.
The question isn't "Did audiences show up?" The question is "Does the performance deserve recognition?"
And for The Smashing Machine, the answer is an emphatic yes.
This Isn't The Rock Playing Tough Guy Again
Let's address the elephant in the room: Dwayne Johnson has been typecast as The Rock for his entire career. Action hero. Charming tough guy. Family-friendly muscle. Even when he's tried to stretch - Ballers, Young Rock - he's still fundamentally playing versions of himself.
The Smashing Machine is something completely different.
Johnson underwent a full physical transformation. Prosthetics. Weight changes. He doesn't look like The Rock. He doesn't move like The Rock. He doesn't smile like The Rock.
He disappears into Mark Kerr - a brilliant but troubled MMA fighter battling addiction, pain, and the brutal reality of combat sports. It's raw. It's vulnerable. It's the opposite of everything Johnson's built his career on.
This is an actor actively fighting against his own persona, his own physicality, his own brand. And winning.
The Venice Response Was Real
You can't fake a 15-minute standing ovation. You can't manufacture Christopher Nolan's endorsement. You can't buy genuine critical acclaim.
Benny Safdie won the Silver Lion for directing at Venice. The film was taken seriously as a work of art, not just a vehicle for a movie star trying to prove something.
Johnson's performance moved people. It made Venice audiences - famously discerning, often jaded - stand and applaud for a quarter of an hour. It made Johnson himself break down in tears.
That's not marketing. That's real artistic achievement being recognized in real time.
Transformation Matters
Yes, there's always debate about whether physical transformation equals great acting. We've seen actors win Oscars for gaining or losing massive weight, wearing prosthetics, or disappearing into characters physically.
Sometimes it feels like the Academy rewards the transformation more than the performance underneath it.
But The Smashing Machine isn't just about Johnson wearing prosthetics. It's about him accessing emotional depths he's never shown before. Playing pain - physical and psychological - with genuine authenticity. Portraying addiction and vulnerability without vanity.
The transformation serves the performance. It's not a gimmick. It's Johnson doing whatever it took to tell this story honestly.
The Oscar Race Shouldn't Ignore This
Currently, Johnson ranks fifth for Best Actor nomination predictions. The bad box office has hurt his momentum significantly. And realistically, getting nominated is going to be an uphill battle.
But the Academy should recognize what he's done here.
This is a movie star taking a massive risk. Walking away from guaranteed blockbuster paydays to play a difficult, unglamorous role in a serious drama. Trusting a visionary director. Pushing himself beyond anything he's done before.
And delivering career-best work in the process.
If the Oscars are about celebrating excellence in film performance, The Smashing Machine deserves to be in the conversation. Not because Johnson is famous. Not because we want to reward risk-taking (though we should). But because the performance is genuinely excellent.
Box Office Can't Be The Metric
Here's the uncomfortable truth: if box office determined Oscar worthiness, we'd have very different Best Actor winners over the years.
Some of the greatest performances ever were in financial disappointments. Some Oscar winners were in movies that underperformed commercially. Quality and commercial success aren't the same thing.
The Smashing Machine failed at the box office for lots of reasons - marketing, timing, audience expectations, and the difficulty of selling a serious drama in 2025. Johnson's performance isn't one of those reasons.
Punishing a great performance because the movie didn't make money is backward. It rewards the wrong things and ignores what actually matters: the work on screen.
And The Verdict is…
Does Dwayne Johnson deserve an Oscar nomination for The Smashing Machine? Yes.
Will he get one? Given the box office collapse and Oscar politics, probably not.
But the quality of the work speaks for itself. A 15-minute standing ovation at Venice. Christopher Nolan's endorsement. A complete transformation from movie star to actor, delivering the most vulnerable, raw performance of his career.
That's Oscar-worthy work. Box office doesn't change that.
The Academy should look past the numbers and recognize what Johnson accomplished here. He didn't just play against type - he transcended everything we thought he was capable of as a performer.
And if the box office disaster keeps him out of the race entirely?
That'll say more about the Academy's priorities than it does about Johnson's performance.